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Idol Board Remark:
"To all you Fantasia fans I'm really happy for you that your pick won. However, let's be honest here and admit that 51% to 49% is NOT a landslide. 1.3 million votes may sound like a lot but it's not out of 65 million.
Diana and Fantasia both have over 30 million fans who supported them. Please don't continue to rub in the salt of the wound that our favorite wasn't given the title."
Response
Fantasia's 2004 Idol Win was Perhaps a Statistical Landslide
The true statistical results of the Fantasia-Diana vote are most likely not half as close as it seems. If this were the Kentucky Derby, Fantasia would have won by a mile!
The results seem close because of a thing in statistical theory call clustering: when a subset of the whole is disproportionately represented in a sample, thereby distorting the estimated value of the whole.
The truth of the matter is that Fantasia's supporters are most likely more mature than that of Diana's. If one runs a regression analysis, one would most likely find that Fantasia's supporters are less likely to be multiple voters because of, but not limited to the following factors:
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- Limited time allotted (by voters) to cast a vote: task repetition is more likely a character of younger voters.
- Timing: people who need to go to work the next day are less likely willing to stay up and try to cast votes for a protracted period of time and way past their normal bedtime.
- Vote casting speed: younger voters are most likely quicker in registering votes.
- Equipment availability: younger voters are the most likely to have more access to more communication voting devices.
- Demographic disproportion: Young white girls were most likely supporters of Diana while young black girl most likely identified with Fantasia, independent of each girls performances. In cases where all other things were constant, Diana would receive substantially more multiple votes in accordance to a higher voter population ratio.
- Duration of voting opportunity: in light of the above, extended voting time was an added advantage to younger voters in compounding the clustering effect: the opportunity to cast even more votes disproportionately.
To overcome this problem, Fantasia population of supporters would have to be substantially larger than that of Diana's. Thereby casting more votes in total.
More precisely, if indeed 65,000,000 were tallied, with Fantasia receiving 51% and Diana receiving 49%, the unadjusted break down of the votes would be 33.15m for Fantasia and 31.85m for Diana.
With full knowledge of what I said above, we should all know by now that, that was not the true figures. In fact no one really know the true statistically valid figures. What we do know is that the amount of people who backed Fantasia must have been substantially more than the sum that back Diana. There are many possible scenarios. For example, if we assume, just for argument, that Diana's supporters out voted Fantasia by 25%, and this is an extremely plausible assumption, this would mean that if 100 people casted votes for Fantasia and 100 casted votes for Diana, Diana would end up with 25% more votes than Fantasia.
Using this 100/125-ratio assumption we could therefore go further and say 31.8 million people did not vote for Diana. The figure would be closer to 31.8x.75 or 23.85m thereby giving us a spread of 9.3m and not 1.3 million.
Bottom line: Public opinions favoring Fantasia's performances over those of Diana's were no where as close as the voting results would lead one to believe. Such a claim is a joke and should not be allowed in the public domain without an explicit disclaimer. Without such disclaimer, such information could be considered false and misleading: a misrepresentation of the facts.
I agree with you, there is no need to gloat, not because the results were to close to claim outright bragging rights but because such behaviors are egotistical, pompous, and immature and lack humility.
We should all take lessons from Fantasia about humility. And some think that she was too egotistical to become the American Idol? Oh what terrible waste of thoughts.
Donald S. Stewart
Idol Board Remark:
"That's your opinion. And you are being somewhat racist here. Who says that "little white girls" will vote for Diana? Or 'little black girls' for Fantasia?
Just because I'm not African American doesn't mean I'm forced to like Diana or Fantasia because of their races. I like Diana because I do, and I don't like Fantasia's voice. I'm tired of being called racist because of it."
Response
My findings that little girls have the tendency to identify with members of their own race are not an opinion. It is a proven tendency. There is nothing racist about this revelation. Ethnocentricity is more pronounced in children than adults, and that's normal, that common sense. It gives children a sense of security, a sense of identity, a sense of belongingness. And there is nothing wrong with that... Your decision to assume that I was referring to adult behavior, thereby taking offense, is projection.
There is nothing racist about stating the facts in an objective way. Furthermore, I can't afford to be a racist; I'm too mixed-up for such nonsense.
Danny Stewie (Donald S. Stewart)
More Responses:
The system is not fair. It cannot be fair if it is not statistically valid. I know that they want to make the show interesting by allowing multiple voting but it would be more interesting if the competition were fair. -Donald S. Stewart (Danny Stewie)
Healthy competition stimulates peak performance in any endeavor. Peak performance creates stiff competition. And results become more unpredictable in a healthy and honest way. Stiff, healthy competition creates more interest that is intensified when results are unpredictable in an honest way. If the unpredictable nature is perceive to be unfair, that can create a backlash in terms of finding the best new talents next time and increasing viewer ship at an increasing rate.
Donald S. Stewart (Danny Stewie)
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