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Addressing An Idol Board's Participant Remarks &
Idol Administrators in particular
The remark:
"Did you ever stop and think that he might be acting that way so people like us would be on here and out in the world talking about it???? Giving us another reason to watch???? In my opinion, we will never know for sure which girl won since "they" are the ones who control the votes. If they had an independent firm handling the votes I'd be more inclined to believe the results. After last year's results, I doubt their process."
Response:
The true statistical results of the Fantasia-Diana vote are most likely not half as close as it seems. If this were the Kentucky Derby, Fantasia would have won by a mile!
The results seem close because of a thing in statistical theory call clustering: when a subset of the whole is disproportionately represented in a sample, thereby distorting the estimated value of the whole.
The truth of the matter is that Fantasia's supporters are most likely more mature than that of Diana's. If one runs a regression analysis, one would most likely find that Fantasia's supporters are less likely to be multiple voters because of, but not limited to the following factors:
- Limited time allotted (by voters) to cast a vote: task repetition is more likely a character of younger voters.
- Timing: people who need to go to work the next day are less likely willing to stay up and try to cast votes for a protracted period of time and way past their normal bedtime.
- Vote casting speed: younger voters are most likely quicker in registering votes.
- Equipment availability: younger voters are the most likely to have more access to more communication voting devices.
- Demographic disproportion: young white girls were most likely supporters of Diana while young black girl most likely identified with Fantasia, independent of each girls performances. In cases where all other things were constant, Diana would receive substantially more multiple votes in accordance to a higher voter population ratio.
- Duration of voting opportunity: in light of the above, extended voting time was an added advantage to younger voters in compounding the clustering effect: the opportunity to cast even more votes disproportionately.
To overcome this problem, Fantasia's population of supporters would have to be substantially larger than that of Diana's. Thereby casting more votes in total.
The solution to this problem is not to open more phone lines in the future, or allow more time to vote. Such measures only compound the problem.
One-person phone in vote will also not solve the problem of clustering or disproportionate representation.
A scientific poll immediately after the show is the most appropriate solution. Such measures cost less, are more efficient, more accountable and way more accurate.
This would not diminish the show's unpredictable nature but enhance it, since voting in predetermined cluster or blocks would be eliminated. Such measure would substantially reduce disgruntedness and cynicism by lending more credibility and transparency to the show since voting results could then be easily verified by any independent polling organization.
All this would probably mean more viewer-ship and, all other things constant, more accurate forecasts of the potential success of each Idol winner.
Bottom line: Fantasia is, in my opinion, one of the best things that ever happened to any Idol competition, she earned her victory!!
Donald S. Stewart
"Should there be an American Idol 4??"
Yes, but the voting formats needs some improvements. There should be a level playing field with regards to the ability to cast a vote. The system is screwed against those who have no time to waste in casting multiple votes or find it unfair to distort the data with multiple voting.
It also discourages one time voters who feel handicap or can't compete with power voters therefore see no sense in voting.
Danny Stewie
| | 1 |  | O : The Oprah Magazine Catalog: Magazine
Publisher: Hearst Magazines
| List price: $42.00
Amazon price: $18.00
Availability: Usually ships within 1 to 3 months
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